The 19th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs will look to maintain their dominance over the Utah State Aggies when they host the 2021 Mountain West Championship game on Saturday. The Aztecs (11-1) have won 13 of 15 all-time games, including three of four since Utah State (9-3) joined the conference. SDSU has won the conference title three times, most recently in 2016, and has suffered only one loss to Fresno State this season. This is the Aggies’ first trip to the Mountain West Championship Game since their loss to Fresno State in 2013, their first year in the MWC. It will be a showdown between the Aggies ‘elite passing offense and the Aztecs’ stingy defense.
Kick-off is 3 p.m. ET in Carson, Calif. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Aztecs as the six-point favorites in their latest Utah State vs San Diego State odds and has the over-under for point total set at 49.5. Before you lock in the San Diego State vs. Utah State picks or college football predictions, you need to see what the hot SportsLine projection model has to say.
The SportsLine projection model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an astounding profit of almost $ 3,700 for every $ 100 players on its top-rated college football picks versus the spread. He also enters Championship Week 2021 on a 42-28 streak across all of the top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed him has seen huge returns.
Now the model has locked in on the state of Utah against the state of San Diego and has just released its coveted picks and CFB forecast. You can now go to SportsLine to see the model choices. Now here are several CFB odds and betting trends for the State of San Diego vs the State of Utah:
- Propagation between the State of Utah and the State of San Diego: Aztecs -6
- Utah State vs. San Diego State over-under: 49.5 points
- Utah State vs San Diego State Currency Line: Aggies +190, Aztecs -230
- USU: It’s 4-1 ATS in its last five teams against ranked teams
- SDSU: It’s 7-6-1 ATS in its last 14 MWC matches
Featured Game | San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah State Aggies
Why the Aztecs can cover
SDSU has scored at least 38 points winning three of the last four games, dropping 23-17 in 2019. The defense has been one of the best in the country, placing second against the run (78.7 yards per game ) and ninth in scoring (17.3 points). Aggies QB Logan Bonner could be in for a long night, as late Cameron Thomas has 10.5 sacks and leads the nation with 31 QB hits. Jonah Tavai has 6.5 bags and SDSU has 20 takeaways. Patrick McMorris and Trenton Thompson both have three picks and Andrew Aleki returned two for touchdowns.
The Aztecs came together to score 24 straight points to beat Boise State 27-16 last Friday. Substitute QB Jordon Brookshire relieved crazed starter Lucas Johnson and threw for 192 yards and rushed for 46 in the win, but it’s unclear heading into this game. SDSU generally relies more on running, averaging nearly 178 per ground game (50th in FBS), so senior Greg Bell should see a lot of work. He has 949 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, and three other running backs are averaging at least 4.3 yards per carry. The Aztecs are 7-4 ATS in home games over the past two seasons.
Why Aggies Can Cover
Utah State is 8-4 ATS this season and has one of the best passing passing attacks in the country, led by Logan Bonner. The Arkansas State transfer has 3,242 passing yards (14.2 by completion, T-14 in FBS) and 32 passing touchdowns (T-10). Receivers Deven Thompkins and Derek Wright make Bonner’s job a lot easier with their big play ability. Thompkins is averaging 17.7 yards per catch and is a high of 1,543 yards, while Wright is averaging 17. 9 and has 10 touchdowns on 39 receptions. SDSU’s weakness is its passing defense, which ranks 80th (235.7 yards per game).
RB Calvin Tyler Jr. and Elelyon Noa totaled 1,269 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Utah State converts to third 45% of the time, the best score in the conference, and is averaging 24 first tries per game, second in MWC. Aggie’s defense is allowing 26 points per game but has 19 points to win, with Shaq Bond and Ajani Carter each getting three steals. Linebacker Justin Rice also has three and is a force in the middle, posting 101 tackles. The Aggies are 3-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS away this season.
How to choose between the state of Utah and the state of San Diego
The model projects that the game will drop below the total, suggesting that the teams will combine for 46 points. It also generated a point choice that hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only get the model’s choice of San Diego State vs. Utah State on SportsLine.
So who wins Saturday’s Mountain West Championship game? And which side of the gap is almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Utah State vs. San Diego State stretched on Saturday, all from the advanced model on a 42-28 run on its top college football picks. rated, and find out.